Re: Syria
Reply #1 - February 26, 2012, 09:03 PM
The security forces and military are involved in brutal campaigns across the country. That's not to say that Saudi Arabia isn't funding armed terrorist groups or America isn't playing it's own game (like all of the 'friends of Syria' conference), but the police and military, mostly lead by Maher al Assad and the Shabiha (mostly Alawite mafia) are supressing the mostly Sunni poor who are protesting in poorer areas-using very brutal and dehumanising tactics.
Having said that, it's a complicated issue, what will happen tomorrow?
1) Will Syrians go for the referendum and settle down eventually, with real political change?
2) Will a united Syrian opposition (made from all sects and ethnic groups) overturn the military and security forces?
3) Will a Sunni revolution take place whereby minorities are persecuted and have to flee the country (or move to different parts of the country?
4) Will Syria be physically divided into sectarian states?
All I know is that the fight is quickly becoming sectarian in most areas-especially in places like Homs or Lattakia-Damascus is still fairly tame. The sunnis who used to back the regime are quickly ditching him, Sunni colonels are quickly leaving the army, many sunni troops are deserting or defecting-out of deseperation they are being replaced by loyal alawites from the clans close to the Assad family or the shabiha mafia-the only sunnis who still support the government are the middle class/elite ones in Aleppo and Damascus. While the Kurds and Druze are staying out of it, the Christians also seem to be supporting the regime-as are most alawites-not necessarily because they are fans, but because they fear the very likely outcome of an Islamist government takeover (and they still remember the discrimination they faced in the era of sunni dominance)-although left-wing Assyrian groups seem to be supporting the revolution in numbers.
One hope I have is that Bashar al Assad defects. Many (on the inside) have been saying that he isn't pleased with his brother Maher (in charge of the army) for the brutality he's shown-he also seems to be distancing himself from the acts of the army. It has been said for years that he is simply a puppet for the old guard and his family and it seems this may be true. Hafez Al Assad had to do the same thing with his brother Rifaat who was a violent criminal and tried a coup on him-Hafez succeeded.While Basher should be held accountable, if he defects-the advantage would be that the country would remain intact, and he would bring along with him the support of the alawites and scared minorities-somehow though I don't think he has the gall to stand up to his clan-even if he wants to.
The country I never thought would become sectarian 5 years ago is now tearing itself apart, people who were one yesterday and quickly dividing into two-it's madness!
(Sorry for the rant, but this issue is on my mind).
Topic: Syria