My view on Usamah Hassan is that the man is either really ahead of his time, or he's going to sink.
See. I don't know if I agree with you on this, man. So long as the man is staying true to what he
actually believes, then there really is no risk of him "sinking." The minute he tries to concern himself with telling other people what they have to believe, that is when he will likely fail. Or, if he is claiming to still be a Muslim, or claiming to believe this or that, just so that he can "reform Islam from within," then that is where I think he will fail. But just by being vocal about what he believes, then people are going to be free to agree or disagree with him. The diversity of opinion is what is needed.
Looking at our own Hassan, who probably has more ex-Muslim merit badges than all of us here, I think that when it comes to personal belief, just about anything is possible. We are writing the rules ourselves as we go along. Eventually, people who are fed up with literalism and its false choices might look at what Usama Hassan has done, or what Maajid Nawaz has done, or what Hassan Radwan has done, and realize that they believe something very similar.
Or, they might look at the writings of Ex-Muslims and find that they are actually more comfortable dropping the label of Muslim all together.
Either way, it'll be up to people to decide for themselves what works for them. The literalists want to make sure they don't have that chance.